Today we track global changes in wind patterns and sea surface temperatures to predict weather conditions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a climate forecast for this winter based on the El Niño pattern emerging in the Pacific Ocean.

Below are winter predictions for the U.S. indicating greater or lesser chances for departures in average winter temperatures and precipitation.

El Niño is a departure from average sea surface temperatures created by a change in the intensity and direction of equatorial winds. In a normal period, strong easterly trade winds blow across the Pacific and upwell cold, nutrient rich waters on the west coast of South America. These same winds also pile up water in the western Pacific so that the sea surface is about 2 feet higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador.

In an El Niño cycle, the winds are not as intense and warmer sea surface temperatures extend further to east. This change has a global impact on weather with increased precipitation on the west coast of South America and the south & east coasts of North America. Warmer than normal conditions also occur at higher latitudes in North America and over the Pacific ocean.

El Niño Sea Surface Temperatures in °C

Join a group of trail enthusiasts and forest & park officials at the Daniel Boone NFS headquarters in Winchester to discuss the future of the Sheltowee Trace. We need as many committed folks as possible to attend. Voice your support for the Sheltowee Trace.

If you would like to attend, you can RSVP here with a comment so we can plan for breakfast and lunch!

Time: 9:30am
Where: Clark County Extension Office (map below)
1400 Fortune Dr
Winchester, KY 40391-8292
(859) 744-4682

Preliminary Agenda

9:30 to 10:00 – Meet and Greet – Coffee, Juice and Bagels, Donuts provided.

10:00 Opening Comments

• Frank Beum, Forest Supervisor, Daniel Boone National Forest
• Steve Handley, Big South Fork National Recreational Area, National Park Service
• Carey Tichenor, Ky State Parks and Recreation
• Steve Barbour, Interim Executive Director, The Sheltowee Trace Association

10:30 – Updates on the Current Condition of The Trace in each Ranger District and Plans for the next 12 to 24 months

10:45 – Current Management Plan Development

• Federal and State Funding Levels
• Challenges of a Muti-use Trail
• Current on-going volunteer programs
• Short Term and Long Term Maintenance Issues
• Trace Blazing – Signage
• Land Acquisition
• Trace Relocation
• Maintaining Easements
• Development of the Volunteer Base
• Promoting The Trace across the state

Following these discussion will be a session on forming the Sheltowee Trace Association, a non-profit dedicated to promoting and protecting this National Recreation Trail.

Map:Here

From the National Weather Service in Jackson, Kentucky:

"2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
MONTH OF MAY. THIS IS OF INTEREST...SINCE WE ARE ONLY ABOUT ONE
QUARTER OF THE WAY THROUGH THE MONTH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY
POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND AND COULD PUSH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP ANOTHER INCH OR TWO.

THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF MAY AT THE JACKSON
WEATHER OFFICE IS 4.92 INCHES. WE HAVE ALL READY RECORDED 4.12
INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF THIS MORNING AT 7AM. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL
...BUT WE ARE CERTAINLY ON TRACK TO HAVE ONE OF THE RAINIEST MAYS
EVER. THE RAINIEST MAY OCCURRED IN 2004 WHEN THE JACKSON WEATHER
OFFICE RECORDED 10.78 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. THIS WAS THE ONLY MONTH
OF MAY THAT OVER TEN INCHES OF RAIN FELL. MAY OF 1995 HAD 9.91
INCHES AND WAS THE ONLY MONTH WITH OVER 9 INCHES RECORDED. THE NEXT
HIGHEST TOTALS WERE OVER 7 INCHES AND THAT OCCURRED IN ONLY TWO
YEARS...1983 AND 1984.

HERE ARE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY COOPERATIVE WEATHER
STATIONS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEMS AS OF 7 AM
EDT...FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2009.

LOCATION         /   COUNTY     /     PRECIPITATION

BARBOURVILLE         KNOX              4.38  INCHES
BAXTER               HARLAN            3.85  INCHES
BEATTYVILLE 4N       LEE               3.68  INCHES
BIG SHELBY           PIKE              3.01  INCHES
BOONEVILLE 1SE       OWSLEY            4.49  INCHES
BUCKHORN LAKE        PERRY             2.80  INCHES
CARR CREEK LAKE      KNOTT             2.73  INCHES
CAVE RUN LAKE        ROWAN             2.28  INCHES
CLAY CITY 1WNW       POWELL            2.77  INCHES
CLOSPLINT 4ESE       HARLAN            4.55  INCHES
COLO                 PULASKI           3.98  INCHES
CRESSY               ESTILL            2.59  INCHES
DRAFFIN              PIKE              3.54  INCHES
EZEL                 MORGAN            3.31  INCHES
GIMLET               ELLIOTT           2.60  INCHES
HARLAN 1S            HARLAN            3.80  INCHES
HARLAN STATE POLICE  HARLAN            2.95  INCHES
HAZARD WATER         PERRY             3.71  INCHES
HAZARD               PERRY             3.70  INCHES
HAZARD STATE POLICE  PERRY             2.95  INCHES
HEIDELBERG 2N        LEE               4.05  INCHES
BAXTER               HARLAN            3.85  INCHES
INEZ 2E              MARTIN            3.78  INCHES
ISLAND CITY          OWSLEY            5.16  INCHES
IVEL                 FLOYD             2.27  INCHES
NWS JACKSON          BREATHITT         4.12  INCHES
JEREMIAH 1S          LETCHER           3.11  INCHES
KINGDOM COME ST PARK HARLAN            3.12  INCHES
LONDON CORBIN APT    LAUREL            4.46  INCHES
MONTICELLO 3NE       WAYNE             4.00  INCHES
MOUNT STERLING 5N    MONTGOMERY        2.41  INCHES
MOUNT VERNON         ROCKCASTLE        2.77  INCHES
ONEIDA               CLAY              4.54  INCHES
PAINTSVILLE 1E       JOHNSON           3.55  INCHES
PIKEVILLE ST POLICE  PIKE              2.05  INCHES
PRESTONSBURG 3NW     FLOYD             4.09  INCHES
QUICKSAND            BREATHITT         3.52  INCHES
RELIEF               MORGAN            3.18  INCHES
ROGERS               WOLFE             2.82  INCHES
SALYERSVILLE         MAGOFFIN          4.28  INCHES
SANDY HOOK           ELLIOTT           2.67  INCHES
SKYLINE              LETCHER           3.20  INCHES
SLADE 5NE            POWELL            2.86  INCHES
SOMERSET 2N          PULASKI           3.74  INCHES
STANTON 2W           POWELL            2.88  INCHES
STEARNS 2S           MCCREARY          5.09  INCHES
VICTORY 5NW          LAUREL            4.13  INCHES
WEST LIBERTY 3NW     MORGAN            2.67  INCHES
WEST LIBERTY 11NW    MORGAN            2.57  INCHES
WHITESBURG           LETCHER           2.50  INCHES
WHITESBURG 2SE       LETCHER           3.21  INCHES
WILLIAMSBURG 1NW     WHITLEY           5.14  INCHES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT JACKSON WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL THE
DEDICATED COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVERS FOR THEIR TIMELY REPORTS."

Customer, “Hi guys. I just wonder if anyone has ever discussed with you the fact that the shading on your maps appears to be reversed. That is, the high points appear like low points and vice versa, if one is looking at the map oriented to north. If one turns the map around, so it is oriented to south, then everything looks correct. So, my guess is simply that the shading is on the wrong side of the ridges. ”

Our response, “Thanks for asking a question that has popped up a few times. In the mapping biz, it’s called terrain inversion and it is a problem sustained by tradition. Before aerial photography, most terrains were shaded as if the sun was in the upper-left corner. This was established as cartographic tradition because we read from upper-left to lower-right.

This worked fine until aerial photography became used as base maps. In the northern hemisphere, and especially at our latitude, the sun is never shines from the north. All of our shadows fall from south to north, completely opposite to how they’re depicted on most conventional maps. Cartographers in the southern hemisphere think we’re crazy up here moving the sun around to accommodate tradition at expense of reality. But they have the advantage of sun always being in the upper quadrants, thus giving the type of illumination you’re probably used to.

But we use aerial photography in most of our maps, because it is reality and at the right scale is far superior to an artificial hillshade in our opinion for couple reasons. You can see areas that are really in shadow, which indicate different plant communities. You can see canopy type, density, and other indicators for type of forest. If you’re a photographer, these images show depth and lines of shadow, helping you predict the kind of light you want for a photo. Finally, if you have take an aerial photo up high to orient, you can do so by shadows.

Detail from our Big South Fork map with aerial photography. Note the north facing cliffs are in shadow, just as in found in the wild.

So in my defense, I say it’s all about sunlight. I understand your problems and trust me, it has stirred the anger of my peers at cartography conferences. We’ve been flamed on blogs for this apparent flaw, but in our humble opinion, an aerial photo is not the problem, it’s tradition.

It’s sounds like you have a lot of experience with maps, and I respect your opinion. However, I think if you get used to aerial photography, you’ll find distinct advantages. Also in defense of tradition, I did illuminate our recent map, Trail Atlas of the Great Smokies from the NW. That map does not use aerial photography so it was an easy decision.”

Big South Fork Trail Map: $12

Hike the scenic crossroads of the John Muir Trail and Sheltowee Trace. Rock Creek Loop is a 6.6-mile loop in our Big South Fork Guide. Half of this loop follows the cool waters of Rock Creek, a trout stream with small stretches of swift water and deep pools for summer refreshment.

Hikers weave through a forest dominated by old, stately Hemlock and American Beech trees with grassy, wildflower areas along the stream bank. The trail is a rugged footpath with a bridge across Massey Branch. Numerous backcountry campsites along the loop offer great weekend backpacking options with side trail options into Pickett State Park and the Daniel Boone National Forest.

The map is sized at 13.5 x 18.5 inches and is 2-spot colors, black and a metallic ink that looks similar to anodized aluminum. The metallic ink has the useful property of shining under a headlamp and makes reading the trails easier in low light conditions. The map has a 2-minute GPS graticule for navigation and geocaching. The map shows all recreation areas for park and adjoining public lands from Straight Creek in the Daniel Boone NF to Peters Ford in the Big South Fork. On the reverse, we have our classic 3D map of the park.

For the new packaging, we’ve added a 2-color cardstock overwrap that makes a more impressive retail display. The wrap describes the historic trail signs that you might find in the Big South Fork. Gone are the rustic old wooden stencil-painted signs. Over the next year, the park will replace the original trail signage with new blazes and trailhead markers. The blazes are recycled plastic tags that indestructible and hardly distracting since they’re hard to see. While I prefer the old wooden signs, I understand the new signage will be easier to maintain and is more informative at trailheads.

Big South Fork Trail Map: $12

Big South Fork Trail Map: $12

The hike from Leatherwood Ford along the John Muir Trail to the Grand Gap Loop trail is one of the most scenic river walks in the park. Contrasting the views of wildflowers and Fall Branch creek are the gorge overlooks found along the 4 mile stretch of Grand Gap Trail that hugs the cliffline above the river. The notable vista is the Angel Falls overlook and many deep pools in the river for swimming and fishing. You might find other happy day hikers and backpackers who shuttle from Bandy Creek Campground and hike the 12 miles from Leatherwood Ford back to the campground.

Photographs:

http://www.outragegis.com/pixel/060416-JMTBISO
http://www.outragegis.com/pixel/050903-JMT

Big South Fork Trail Map: $12

The Twin Arches loop is the benchmark trail for the Big South Fork. You’ll see not one, but two spectacular arches, hike under fine cliffline, visit two historic homesteads, collect numerous great photos, and to top it off, you can overnight at Charit Creek Lodge.

The lodge offers two cabins, full meals, and hostel loding for the hiker or equestrian. Reservations are required. A great morning hike is to take 3.2-mile round-trip excursion to the Charit Creek Overlook.