Today we track global changes in wind patterns and sea surface temperatures to predict weather conditions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a climate forecast for this winter based on the El Niño pattern emerging in the Pacific Ocean.

Below are winter predictions for the U.S. indicating greater or lesser chances for departures in average winter temperatures and precipitation.

El Niño is a departure from average sea surface temperatures created by a change in the intensity and direction of equatorial winds. In a normal period, strong easterly trade winds blow across the Pacific and upwell cold, nutrient rich waters on the west coast of South America. These same winds also pile up water in the western Pacific so that the sea surface is about 2 feet higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador.

In an El Niño cycle, the winds are not as intense and warmer sea surface temperatures extend further to east. This change has a global impact on weather with increased precipitation on the west coast of South America and the south & east coasts of North America. Warmer than normal conditions also occur at higher latitudes in North America and over the Pacific ocean.

El Niño Sea Surface Temperatures in °C

Join a group of trail enthusiasts and forest & park officials at the Daniel Boone NFS headquarters in Winchester to discuss the future of the Sheltowee Trace. We need as many committed folks as possible to attend. Voice your support for the Sheltowee Trace.

If you would like to attend, you can RSVP here with a comment so we can plan for breakfast and lunch!

Time: 9:30am
Where: Clark County Extension Office (map below)
1400 Fortune Dr
Winchester, KY 40391-8292
(859) 744-4682

Preliminary Agenda

9:30 to 10:00 – Meet and Greet – Coffee, Juice and Bagels, Donuts provided.

10:00 Opening Comments

• Frank Beum, Forest Supervisor, Daniel Boone National Forest
• Steve Handley, Big South Fork National Recreational Area, National Park Service
• Carey Tichenor, Ky State Parks and Recreation
• Steve Barbour, Interim Executive Director, The Sheltowee Trace Association

10:30 – Updates on the Current Condition of The Trace in each Ranger District and Plans for the next 12 to 24 months

10:45 – Current Management Plan Development

• Federal and State Funding Levels
• Challenges of a Muti-use Trail
• Current on-going volunteer programs
• Short Term and Long Term Maintenance Issues
• Trace Blazing – Signage
• Land Acquisition
• Trace Relocation
• Maintaining Easements
• Development of the Volunteer Base
• Promoting The Trace across the state

Following these discussion will be a session on forming the Sheltowee Trace Association, a non-profit dedicated to promoting and protecting this National Recreation Trail.

Map:Here

From the National Weather Service in Jackson, Kentucky:

"2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
MONTH OF MAY. THIS IS OF INTEREST...SINCE WE ARE ONLY ABOUT ONE
QUARTER OF THE WAY THROUGH THE MONTH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY
POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND AND COULD PUSH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP ANOTHER INCH OR TWO.

THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF MAY AT THE JACKSON
WEATHER OFFICE IS 4.92 INCHES. WE HAVE ALL READY RECORDED 4.12
INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF THIS MORNING AT 7AM. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL
...BUT WE ARE CERTAINLY ON TRACK TO HAVE ONE OF THE RAINIEST MAYS
EVER. THE RAINIEST MAY OCCURRED IN 2004 WHEN THE JACKSON WEATHER
OFFICE RECORDED 10.78 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. THIS WAS THE ONLY MONTH
OF MAY THAT OVER TEN INCHES OF RAIN FELL. MAY OF 1995 HAD 9.91
INCHES AND WAS THE ONLY MONTH WITH OVER 9 INCHES RECORDED. THE NEXT
HIGHEST TOTALS WERE OVER 7 INCHES AND THAT OCCURRED IN ONLY TWO
YEARS...1983 AND 1984.

HERE ARE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY COOPERATIVE WEATHER
STATIONS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEMS AS OF 7 AM
EDT...FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2009.

LOCATION         /   COUNTY     /     PRECIPITATION

BARBOURVILLE         KNOX              4.38  INCHES
BAXTER               HARLAN            3.85  INCHES
BEATTYVILLE 4N       LEE               3.68  INCHES
BIG SHELBY           PIKE              3.01  INCHES
BOONEVILLE 1SE       OWSLEY            4.49  INCHES
BUCKHORN LAKE        PERRY             2.80  INCHES
CARR CREEK LAKE      KNOTT             2.73  INCHES
CAVE RUN LAKE        ROWAN             2.28  INCHES
CLAY CITY 1WNW       POWELL            2.77  INCHES
CLOSPLINT 4ESE       HARLAN            4.55  INCHES
COLO                 PULASKI           3.98  INCHES
CRESSY               ESTILL            2.59  INCHES
DRAFFIN              PIKE              3.54  INCHES
EZEL                 MORGAN            3.31  INCHES
GIMLET               ELLIOTT           2.60  INCHES
HARLAN 1S            HARLAN            3.80  INCHES
HARLAN STATE POLICE  HARLAN            2.95  INCHES
HAZARD WATER         PERRY             3.71  INCHES
HAZARD               PERRY             3.70  INCHES
HAZARD STATE POLICE  PERRY             2.95  INCHES
HEIDELBERG 2N        LEE               4.05  INCHES
BAXTER               HARLAN            3.85  INCHES
INEZ 2E              MARTIN            3.78  INCHES
ISLAND CITY          OWSLEY            5.16  INCHES
IVEL                 FLOYD             2.27  INCHES
NWS JACKSON          BREATHITT         4.12  INCHES
JEREMIAH 1S          LETCHER           3.11  INCHES
KINGDOM COME ST PARK HARLAN            3.12  INCHES
LONDON CORBIN APT    LAUREL            4.46  INCHES
MONTICELLO 3NE       WAYNE             4.00  INCHES
MOUNT STERLING 5N    MONTGOMERY        2.41  INCHES
MOUNT VERNON         ROCKCASTLE        2.77  INCHES
ONEIDA               CLAY              4.54  INCHES
PAINTSVILLE 1E       JOHNSON           3.55  INCHES
PIKEVILLE ST POLICE  PIKE              2.05  INCHES
PRESTONSBURG 3NW     FLOYD             4.09  INCHES
QUICKSAND            BREATHITT         3.52  INCHES
RELIEF               MORGAN            3.18  INCHES
ROGERS               WOLFE             2.82  INCHES
SALYERSVILLE         MAGOFFIN          4.28  INCHES
SANDY HOOK           ELLIOTT           2.67  INCHES
SKYLINE              LETCHER           3.20  INCHES
SLADE 5NE            POWELL            2.86  INCHES
SOMERSET 2N          PULASKI           3.74  INCHES
STANTON 2W           POWELL            2.88  INCHES
STEARNS 2S           MCCREARY          5.09  INCHES
VICTORY 5NW          LAUREL            4.13  INCHES
WEST LIBERTY 3NW     MORGAN            2.67  INCHES
WEST LIBERTY 11NW    MORGAN            2.57  INCHES
WHITESBURG           LETCHER           2.50  INCHES
WHITESBURG 2SE       LETCHER           3.21  INCHES
WILLIAMSBURG 1NW     WHITLEY           5.14  INCHES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT JACKSON WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL THE
DEDICATED COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVERS FOR THEIR TIMELY REPORTS."

Water is an issue for backcountry ridge campers. Clear Creek is not flowing at the Iron Furnace. Occasional pools are found with plenty of crawdads and water spiders, but above that nothing. Of course the lake has plenty of water, but one will have to climb off the ridge to refill their nalgenes.

For more info about the drought conditions the forest is experiencing, visit our post on this topic here.

Cave Run Lake Trail Guide: $12

Imagine the scene around Clear Creek Iron Furnace in the 1830’s, the trailhead for this hike. Scores of men were clearing old growth trees by acres a week, cutting limestone from the creeks, and hauling iron ore rock from neighboring hillsides to fuel one of largest iron furnaces in Kentucky. Iron was produced roughly nine months out of the year. The process was a laborious affair, but the profit was great, until much larger deposits of iron ore were found in the southern Appalachians and around the Great Lakes.

The cut wood was slowly burned in dirt covered pit to make charcoal. The furnace was ‘charged’ from the top in layers of ore, charcoal, and limestone and when full, the furnace was stoked with forced air until the charcoal was white-hot and the whole furnace roared tremendously and blasted heated air, flames, and a shower of sparks from the top. That’s when the furnace was in blast and slowly molten iron would flow from furnace bottom and fill trenches of sand to make pig iron ingots. The iron ore found in rocks is basically rust and is rendered as elemental iron in series of chemical reactions in the furnace.

Today you can still see many aspects of the furnace operation. The hand-cut limestone furnace still stands. Glass and slag are found downstream. The fuel for charcoal of course grows around abundantly. The limestone outcrops as you ascend the trail south from furnace. The Sinks is a sinkhole in the limestone bedrock produced by the slow process of erosion. Atop the southern extent of this trail, you’ll find the same rugged sandstone the produces the great rockshelters in the Red River Gorge. In fact, if you continue hiking the Sheltowee Trace south, you’ll travel through the heart of the Gorge.

Furnace Arch is a low broad arch that resembles the iron furnace in shape. The sandstone outcrops in the area offer a few campsites, though no water along the ridge top. The scenic quality of this area, with blooming rhododendron against craggy boulders, is worth a day of exploration.

Cave Run Lake Trail Guide: $12

This is an essential Cave Run Lake experience: hiking to the top of Tater Knob. You can’t say you’ve ‘done’ Cave Run, unless you’ve watched the sunset from this last-standing fire tower in the Daniel Boone national forest. Built in 1934, the tower was decommissioned in the 1970’s when aircraft replaced fixed observation points.

The tower was restored 1993 and today is on the National Register of Historic Places. The area has an interpretive trail that explains how fire towers were used as a network to triangulate fires. Most visitors admire the scenery from the tower, which is especially nice tower Chestnut Cliffs; however, there’s a secluded cliffline perch just northeast of the tower’s base. The tower parking area is centrally located in Pioneer Weapons to complete a figure-8 loop among the 20+ miles of trail between the Lake and Glady Trailhead.